A theory of change is a structured framework for how a set of assumptions and actions can lead to a set of anticipated outcomes. Developing a theory of change can help you clarify goals, identify key steps to achieve them, reveal assumptions, and highlight potential risks you might encounter in the process. You can use a theory of change both to explain the details of how your innovation will work at scale and to communicate your innovation story to others. 

Define the root cause your innovation seeks to address, including all affected groups of people, ideal impact, outcomes and outputs of that impact, assumptions you might have connected to the success of your idea, and short-term and long-term goals. Develop a narrative around this theory of change that clearly explains why your innovation will achieve what you say it will.

• Include both the anticipated direct impacts and potential ripple effects of your innovation, making sure to consider its unintended consequences as well as its ability to influence broader systems and behaviors.
• Align your theory of change with broader community, national, or global  goals and frameworks (e.g., UN Sustainable Development Goals, AI Executive Order, The Paris Agreement).
• Account for the fact that seeing the evidence of impact often takes time and involves the process of mapping past successes, short-term wins, and long-term ambitions.